Financial tools for founders who want probability ranges, not false precision. Monte Carlo simulations, Bayesian inference, and quantified uncertainty.
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The Problem
Single-point estimates create an illusion of precision. Reality is uncertain.
Your spreadsheet says 16.2 months of runway. Reality? Somewhere between 12 and 20. That precision is a lie.
Hiring always takes longer. Revenue misses projections. Surprises happen. Static models ignore all of this.
"What's the probability we run out before closing our round?" Spreadsheets can't answer this. We can.
Our Products
Each tool uses Bayesian inference and Monte Carlo simulation to give you probability ranges.
Know your runway with probability ranges, not a single misleading number.
Compare competing term sheets with quantified outcome distributions.
Model dilution scenarios with uncertainty quantification built in.
"One senior or two juniors?" Get probabilistic answers, not guesses.
Traditional financial models give you a single number. But the future isn't certain. Our tools use the same Bayesian methods that actuaries and quants use to model uncertainty.
The difference between false confidence and informed decision-making.
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About Us
We build quantitative tools for startup founders. Our financial modeling products use Bayesian inference and Monte Carlo simulation to replace false precision with honest uncertainty quantification. Because the best decisions come from understanding what you don't know.